holystove

I could ask what threats etc but I'm sure we'd never agree. I just wanted to point out how far both sides are apart.. "different galaxies" even. Really dangerous as this cannot and musnt end without a deep and comprehensive deal.

excerpt from politico. not good, but expected. "EU leaders expressed mounting alarm Friday that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May and her team are in a dangerous state of denial about the consequences of leaving the bloc. The worry over Britains unrealistic expectations was a main topic of discussion at background briefings all across Brussels European Quarter on the eve of an extraordinary European Council summit on Brexit. Saturdays summit is the first official gathering of the 27 EU leaders without Britain since May sent a letter formally triggering the Article 50 withdrawal process in late March. Diplomats said the concerns were tied directly to a dinner that May hosted in London Wednesday night with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the EUs chief negotiator Michel Barnier, and other senior officials. Participants in the dinner were extraordinarily tight-lipped about it afterward, but an EU diplomat said Juncker called Chancellor Angela Merkel at 7:30 a.m. the day after the dinner. And in a speech to the German parliament on Thursday, Merkel sent a pointed wake-up call, saying the U.K. cannot and will not have the same rights as EU members and that Britain should have no illusions. May, responding to Merkels comments, said that the 27 were lining up to oppose the U.K., and she noted, Weve seen that actually there will be times when these negotiations are going to get tough. One senior EU official said there was some relief that even hard-line Brexiteers were no longer suggesting that leaving the EU without a formal withdrawal agreement might be a good idea. Officials on both sides generally agree that would lead to chaos. But EU officials, who in recent months have worked hard to build uncharacteristic unity among the 27 on Brexit, suggested it was not clear the U.K. had come to grips with the fact that EU businesses, particularly in the financial sector, were likely to suffer as a result of Brexit or that Britain has substantial financial obligations to the EU budget that must be fulfilled. Those obligations are not a Brexit bill or an exit fee, one senior EU official said, but simply reflect joint budget commitments that the U.K. agreed as a full-fledged EU member. That issue will not go away, the official said. Were telling them it will be a problem. One EU diplomat, asked how things went at the dinner in London, said: Badly. Really badly. The diplomat added: Thats what I think we have a possible scenario of great difficulty. Pressed on different views of the U.K.s financial obligations, the diplomat said: Im not going to tell you their number, because you are going to laugh. The diplomats overall verdict on the Brits? They are in a different galaxy.

Doesn't this tie into a lot of other issues too though? for example, as the NHS is hugely dependent on foreign workers (nurses (10+%), doctors (25+%),...), what do you do if a party puts NHS in their manifesto but also a hard cap on immigration? or, what if, to keep the NHS working, a (likely) tax increase will be necessary? what do you do if a party promises both strong NHS and guarantee of no tax-increase in their manifesto? etc

There should be no surprise this is the position of the member states and the union itself. They have not changed their stance since the first respond to the referendum result. Tusk said himself, early on, that, given the UK (and EU) red lines, the only alternative to hard brexit is no brexit. There is a great three parter about this in the FT today: (written by a lawyer/journalist who is a former aide to Bill Cash, and former colleague of Dan Hannan - so not really a pro-EU guy) Brexit by timetable - the EU and Brexit Three-parter at @FT : http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2017/04/25/brexit-by-timetable-part-1-the-evolution-of-the-eus-position/ … http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2017/04/26/brexit-by-timetable-the-evolution-of-the-eus-position-part-2/ … http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2017/04/27/brexit-by-timetable-the-evolution-of-the-eus-position-part-3/ …

will this Tory election fraud scandal mean anything, should it mean anything or is it small potatoes?

Interesting point of view. I always assumed it was mainly the other way around : the popular press is right-wing, so their readers (if they read nothing else) will be right-wing as well. If I only read the Daily Express for example, I wouldn't just say the EU is shaking a wee bit, I'd say it'll be lucky not to collapse before the end of April. (not implying the EU is necessarily a left or right-wing issue). I also agree about the BBC. If both Corbyn supporters and UKIP supporters think you're overly critical of them, you're probably right there in the middle.

Excerpt from AP interview. Recommend the whole thing (https://apnews.com/c810d7de280a47e88848b0ac74690c83), but the above was my favourite part.

French voters in the UK. (total 43.551) Macron: 51,40% Fillon: 24,79% Melenchon: 11,33% Hamon: 6,68% LePen: 2,81%

hrtbps‏ @hrtbps 11 u11 uur geleden Meer Le Pen quitting FN like Clark Kent taking off his glasses, as if we're meant to go "hey where did the fascist go? I no longer see a fascist"

Good call on Messi. One of the lasiest players I've ever watched live. Just stands around half the time looking genuinely bored, then pops up and does something brilliant.

I've heard from several people Skoda is quite good, but the Yeti is, imo, the ugliest car I've ever seen. Also agree with you on French cars, but they are cheaper, so you get what you pay for. I've decided to go for the used car (BMW X1 xDrive18d). Thanks for the input, everyone. Only thing left is to convince the wife.

I thought Cameron took the project-fear approach? "The only thing worse than being in the EU is not being in the EU" etc. Even though he campaigned for Remain, I wouldn't call such an approach pro-EU.

My car broke down (Ford Galaxy) and have to buy a new one. As I know nothing about cars, I hate the process of buying a new one because I constantly feel taken advantage of by car salesmen. After some research I think I will either buy a Toyota Rav4, Peugeot 5008 or Renault Kadjar. If I go for a second-hand car, I can get a BMW X1 for the same price as those three, but it's 2 years old with 20.000 miles on the meter. If any car-people on here, any advice is very welcome.

Macron's party was founded less than one year ago. He campaigned with a positive project for France (no fear, open society) and wants France to be a constructive member state in a strong EU. He was also the only candidate who was critical of Putin. Now he won the first round, and is set to win the second round by over 25%. The evident disappointment from UK right-wing tabloids and the eurosceptics is both kind of nauseating and oddly soothing. Regardless of what the Daily Mail and others put on their front page today, the reality is that even though the setting was perfect for LePen (a terrorist attack days before the election and the persistent terrorist threat in France, the victories of Trump and Brexit, ..) she went from 28% (last regional elections) to 22% this election. As a side note, that's two EU elections in a row now where the openly pro-supranational cooperation parties have won big. Maybe if Cameron had run a "pro-EU" campaign instead of an "anti-not-in-EU" campaign, the result might have been different. Well done, France.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/trump-puts-eu-ahead-of-britain-in-trade-queue-l7t8zwn7k today's frontpage The Times. should actually be in the Trump thread. the ignorance of this man and those that surround him is staggering. it took 11 tries to explain what the EU is.

French media reporting deal with Monaco close to being done for 20m EUR.

Last day of polling in France. Macron 24% Le Pen 21.5% Fillon 20% Mélenchon 19.5% Seems to me in almost every first world country the nationalists/populists/fascists get between 10-30% of the vote. It's just strange that in some electoral systems that is enough to get you elected. Trump got 25% = president. Wilders 15% = powerless. LePen 21% = set to loose against every candidate in second round (if she makes second round). Quite a good argument for mandatory voting and proportionate representation with coalition governments.

Freedom of Movement is actually a misleading term. It is Freedom of Movement for workers. You have the right to work in another member state (or actively look for a job there). Consequently, the right to reside in a member state is dependent on being employed in that member state (or qualify as a "jobseeker"). Pensioners and students have to prove they have sufficient income to be able to pay for their stay, and they have to have comprehensive health insurance in the host state. Also any member state can deport EU nationals on grounds of public policy, public security or public health. Freedom of Movement has been mis-represented in the UK as the right to settle of any EU-national in the UK. It is in reality much stricter and is predicated on being completely self-sufficient. Various member state apply tougher standards than others; UK coincidentally quite lenient (something British eurosceptis then blame the EU for).

question from an outsider: seeing how hugely unpopular Corbyn is, is it possible he will loose his seat? If so, can he continue as leader or is it not necessary the leader of the party is also an MP? Apparently a lot of people on here don't want to vote for a certain party based on who's the leader of that party. Personally I would vote for the most capable politician in my constituency. For example, if I were to live in Rushcliffe I'd vote for the Conservative candidate, but if I lived in the East Midlands I'd vote Lib Dem, etc. (I have, in past elections, voted for the Green Party, the Liberal party and even the eurosceptic party.)

Oliver on France

A lot of important elections this year in Europe. Netherlands : 15th March France : 23rd April and 7th May UK: 8th June (separate thread) Germany: 24th September France up next. 4 people still in it. Melenchon (eurosceptic - far left) = Bernie Sanders / Corbyn ; LePen (anti-EU - far right) = Trump / Farage ; Fillon (moderate eurosceptic - centre right) = Paul Ryan ; Macron (europhile - center) = Hillary / Farron Two leading candidates will go head-to-head in second round. Polls: Macron: 23%; LePen: 22%; Fillon: 20%; Melenchon: 19% Head to head polling: Macron beats everyone, LePen loses to everyone, Melenchon beats Fillon.

Following up on this. After the Telegraph rightly making fun of May for not making clear what her strategy is (or not having one), today The Times calls her out. How this women is set to have one of the biggest majorities in recent memory is beyond me. I understand the sentiment of respecting the referendum result, wanting to get on with it, but there really should be more pressure put on British leaders to present a vision of what post-brexit Britain will look like.

The over-population problem is added to by the fact that it is mostly the poor countries that have an ever increasing number of people .. As those countries can't provide for them, the problem of mass-immigration is created. Meanwhile, in Europe, where countries are rich enough to provide for a bigger number of people, the populations of most countries are decreasing (if you discount immigration). I don't know if these two elements are directly related though. Any sociologist Evertonians on here? I like the conclusion of your article: "Western civilisation is not a lost cause, however. Using reason and science to guide decisions, paired with extraordinary leadership and exceptional goodwill, human society can progress to higher and higher levels of well-being and development, Homer-Dixon says. Even as we weather the coming stresses of climate change, population growth and dropping energy returns, we can maintain our societies and better them. But that requires resisting the very natural urge, when confronted with such overwhelming pressures, to become less cooperative, less generous and less open to reason."

It might send a signal when Ossoff wins, but this will be of as little significance as Sarah Olney unseating Zac Goldsmith in the Richmond Park by-election in 2016. You might get excited for a day or two, until you realise the republicans/conservatives are still firmly in power.

Yes the BoE intervention was significant, rightfully so .. but they've now done pretty much all they can do. Also very true the UK is still in the EU and therefor still benefits from the Single Market. (for probably up to 5 more years including the transition deal) The reason economists got it wrong about an immediate collapse of the UK economy is because consumer spending was very strong. The British people were not alarmed in the slightest by the referendum result. However, right now, consumer spending is slowing as real wage growth has become negative, savings rate is very low, ... As I understand, most economists claim they weren't wrong about the effects of brexit, just about the timing. I understand John highlighting elements that predict a bright future, but it's going to be really interesting to see what happens as you can still find both sides of the argument defended by many economists. For example here's what the "World Economic Forum" wrote on the 12th of April 2017: And here's what Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts will happen to trade post-brexit: Also, just because the UK economy grows post-brexit doesn't mean brexit was economically a good idea. You have to compare it to how much it would have grown without brexit.